Overview
- Q4 2025 net income fell to $71 million from $138 million a year earlier, and full-year profit declined to $444 million on $8.6 billion in sales as annual EBITDA dropped 20% to $1.3 billion.
- Management set 2026 targets that include $700 million to $800 million in adjusted free cash flow, $8.4 billion to $8.6 billion in sales, $1.05 billion to $1.25 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and $0.75 to $1.15 in adjusted EPS.
- The company plans to remove about $260 million of paperboard and finished-goods inventory in 2026, with production curtailments that began in Q4 expected to continue into the first half.
- Leaders opened a root-cause review of higher-than-expected costs at the new Waco, Texas recycled paperboard mill after $935 million was spent in 2025, with the total project now estimated at $1.67 billion and startup costs of roughly $40 million not expected to recur in 2026.
- Executives flagged near-term pressure from bleached paperboard overcapacity and shifting consumer pack preferences, and they preliminarily estimate a $20 million to $30 million weather-related impact in Q1.