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Grain Markets Slip Into the Weekend as Soybeans Drop Despite Fresh Chinese Buying

Fund flows with expiring December contracts drive volatility after USDA cut U.S. corn stocks, with export data robust.

Overview

  • Soybeans fell 15 to 17 cents Friday even after USDA confirmed a 132,000‑MT sale to China, taking known Chinese purchases to about 3.5 MMT, with another 513,000 MT slated for a Sinograin auction next week.
  • USDA’s December WASDE earlier trimmed U.S. 2025/26 corn ending stocks by 125 mbu to 2.029 bbu, and CFTC data showed managed money net long corn by 38,127 contracts as of November 18.
  • Corn futures finished 4 to 6 cents lower as the December contract expired, while USDA reported private sales of 250,000 MT to unknown and weekly bookings staying strong in backlogged reports.
  • Catch‑up export data showed a 4‑week high 2.38 MMT of corn sold and 850,418 MT of wheat for the week ending November 13, with corn sale commitments at 40.7 MMT running ahead of last year.
  • South American updates featured Argentina’s export‑tax cuts (soy to 24%, corn to 8.5%) and Brazil’s CONAB trimming soybean output to 177.12 MMT, as ANEC projected December soybean exports near 3.33 MMT.