Grain Futures Pull Back as Funds Liquidate and Wetter U.S. Forecasts Weigh

Overview

• Markets opened August lower after heavy month‑end fund profit‑taking reversed July’s speculative rallies and trimmed managed‑money positions.
• The weekly USDA Crop Progress report showed U.S. corn ratings slipped to 61% good‑to‑excellent with 90% of the crop silking and 43% in dough, while soybeans remained at 63% good‑to‑excellent with 88% blooming.
• Official trade data provided mixed signals with a strong corn export inspections week of 1.885 million metric tons and USDA confirmations of large soybean sales to China totaling about 488,000 metric tons for 2026/27.
• Short‑term weather forecasts calling for wetter conditions in parts of the western Corn Belt reduced near‑term yield stress and exerted downward pressure on corn and soybean futures, while weaker crude oil added pressure on corn through the ethanol channel.
• Large managed‑money net longs in corn and soy increase the chance that technical liquidation or fresh buying will amplify moves, making the Aug. 12 USDA WASDE, weekly crop reports, and the Pro Farmer tour the key near‑term catalysts for prices.