Grain Futures Firm to Close October on China Buying Headlines as Wheat, Soybeans Lead

With USDA reports suspended, traders reacted to unverified China commitments using export inspections alongside private estimates.

Overview

Soybeans recovered into Friday midday after a volatile rally, with market reports citing a 12 MMT U.S. soybean commitment this year and an expected end to ag tariffs, though official verification remains constrained by the shutdown.
Wheat rebounded on Friday to finish the week higher, as the EU lifted its production estimate to 133.4 MMT, U.S. Plains dryness loomed, and a South Korean miller purchased 40,300 MT of Canadian wheat.
Corn ended slightly higher Friday and up on the week, with the October crop‑insurance harvest price averaging $4.22 for December futures and EIA data earlier showing ethanol output at 1.091 million bpd with stocks rising.
USDA’s export sales reports remain on hold during the government shutdown, so trading leaned on export inspections and private forecasts, including Rabobank’s Brazil estimates of 177 MMT for soybeans and 137 MMT for corn.
Outside grains, cotton prices slipped after midweek strength tied to the Trump–Xi meeting headlines, and cattle futures were mixed to lower into the close as cash trade centered near $232 in the North and about $235 in the South.