Overview

• Projected global fossil fuel output for 2030 is about 120% above a 1.5°C‑consistent pathway and 77% above a 2°C pathway, the report shows.
• Sectoral gaps are stark, with coal production forecast around 500% above a 1.5°C pathway by 2030, oil about 31% higher and gas about 92% higher.
• The assessment of 20 major producers accounting for roughly 80% of global output finds 17 still plan to increase at least one fuel by 2030, and 11 have raised their plans since 2023.
• Only six of the 20 countries now align domestic production with national and global net‑zero goals, up from four in 2023, as subsidies, permitting and new infrastructure risk locking in higher emissions.
• The authors urge countries preparing 2035 targets to integrate production limits and finance for a just transition, noting China, the United States and Russia accounted for over half of 2022 extraction‑based emissions.