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3w ago

Government Under Fire Over SEND Funding After OBR Flags £6bn Gap

Independent forecasters say ministers have not shown how they will cover a £6.3bn annual cost from 2028-29.

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3D7MFCY ONE EDITORIAL USE ONLY. NO SALES. NO ARCHIVING. NO ALTERING OR MANIPULATING. NO USE ON SOCIAL MEDIA UNLESS AGREED BY HOC PHOTOGRAPHY SERVICE. MANDATORY CREDIT: House of Commons Handout photo issued by the House of Commons of Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivering her Budget in the House of Commons, London. Picture date: Wednesday November 26, 2025.
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Overview

  • The Budget moves future SEND costs from local councils to central government starting in 2028-29, shifting financial responsibility to the Department for Education.
  • The OBR estimates a £6.3bn pressure in 2028-29, rising toward about £9bn by 2030-31, and says no offsetting savings have been identified.
  • After revising its modelling to a 4.9% potential real-terms cut to mainstream per‑pupil funding if paid from the schools budget, the OBR’s presentation was rejected by the DfE, which says costs will be met across government and reduced by reforms.
  • Historic SEND deficits held off council balance sheets could reach about £14bn by 2028-29, with the watchdog warning of a significant fiscal risk and potential Section 114 notices if no plan is set out.
  • Teaching unions have threatened strike ballots and MPs are demanding clarity at December’s local government finance settlement, with a schools white paper on SEND reforms promised for early 2026.