Overview

• With no funding deal in hand before the 12:01 a.m. ET deadline, President Trump called a shutdown “probably likely” after talks with congressional leaders stalled.
• The Congressional Budget Office estimates roughly 750,000 federal employees would be furloughed, and the SEC has told staff to prepare for a funding lapse.
• The September nonfarm payrolls release would be postponed as the Labor Department suspends virtually all activity, shifting attention to ADP’s private jobs data.
• U.S. stock futures tick lower and gold trades near record highs, reflecting caution focused on how long the shutdown might last rather than whether it starts.
• Market strategists expect little lasting damage from a brief closure but warn a multi‑week shutdown could trigger a 4%–10% pullback and increase economic uncertainty.