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2h ago

Government Shutdown Recasts Virginia Governor’s Race as Polls Split

Virginia’s heavy federal workforce makes the stoppage a central campaign test.

Voters cast ballots at a polling location on the first day of early voting in Leesburg, Virginia, on Friday.
L: Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger attends a campaign event in Louisa, Virginia, on November 1, 2018. R: Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears presides over the state Senate on February 8, 2022.
The US Capitol building is pictured in Washington, DC, on September 30, 2025. The United States government was barreling towards its first shutdown in six years Tuesday, with funding expiring at midnight barring a breakthrough on deadlocked negotiations between Democrats and Republicans. (Photo by Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP) (Photo by ALEX WROBLEWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
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Overview

  • The federal shutdown that began Oct. 1 has become a defining issue in the Spanberger–Earle-Sears contest, with each side assigning blame to the other.
  • Spanberger urges President Trump to end the stoppage and casts DOGE cuts and tariffs as threats to Virginia jobs, while Earle-Sears says Democrats engineered the closure and faults Spanberger’s pre-shutdown response.
  • A new Emerson College/The Hill poll conducted Sept. 28–29 shows Spanberger leading 52% to 42%, with early voters reporting a 60%–38% tilt toward her.
  • An A2 Insights survey from late September finds a tighter race at 48%–45%, underscoring conflicting late polling as early ballots are cast.
  • With more than 300,000 federal employees in Virginia, the shutdown’s economic effects loom large in Northern Virginia suburbs as early voting continues ahead of the Nov. 4 election.