Overview

• Covered California plans to issue renewal notices this week after delaying them, with two versions prepared depending on whether Congress extends the enhanced credits, and projects average premium costs for affected enrollees would rise about 97% in the state as KFF estimates nationwide averages would more than double without an extension.
• Vice President J.D. Vance argued the credits fuel waste and fraud, citing concerns echoed by CMS complaint data about improper third‑party enrollments, while Republican leaders insist on reopening the government before negotiating and Democrats condition a funding bill on extending the credits.
• State regulators warn of steep local impacts, with Colorado’s insurance commissioner citing roughly 170% jumps for common silver plans and 75,000 to 100,000 residents at risk of losing access to care, and Arkansas data showing average 2026 rate filings up 22.21% even before factoring any subsidy loss.
• Insurers are already pricing 2026 plans for a potential lapse, with Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Illinois noting rates reflect the anticipated expiration as Illinois braces for a possible 35% enrollment drop and transitions to a new state‑based marketplace at GetCoveredIllinois.gov.
• Marketplace enrollment has climbed to more than 24 million under the enhanced credits, and analyses indicate millions would face increases exceeding $1,000 a year and many would drop coverage if Congress lets the expanded aid expire at year’s end.