Overview

• The BLS has suspended data collection and releases during a seventh day of the shutdown, delaying the September jobs report and upcoming inflation figures.
• Carlyle’s new shadow reading estimates just 17,000 jobs added in September, while Moody’s Mark Zandi says averaging ADP’s 32,000 loss with Revelio’s 60,000 gain points to essentially no job growth.
• Private data show what hiring remains is concentrated in education and healthcare and skewed to large employers, with smaller firms strained by tariffs and tighter immigration.
• Weekly initial jobless claims edged up to 224,269 for the week ended Sept. 27, and continuing claims rose to about 1.921 million, signaling a low-fire, low-hire labor market.
• The data blackout complicates the Fed’s late-October rate decision and could delay the Social Security cost-of-living adjustment announcement tied to September inflation.