Government Raises 2027 Minimum-Wage Projection to R$1,741

Overview

• The federal projection for the 2027 national minimum wage was updated to R$1,741 on Friday, August 14, reflecting a R$24 increase from April’s R$1,717 estimate.
• The Finance Ministry’s economic office (SPE) raised its 12-month inflation forecast through November to 4.93%, a shift the government cited as the main driver of the upward revision.
• The wage formula adds the INPC inflation accumulated through November to a GDP-based real-gain tied to 2025 growth, so the projected figure remains provisional until the year-end INPC result and the real-gain rule are applied.
• The change will be included in the 2027 Annual Budget Bill to be sent to Congress by August 31 and, using the government’s cost metric of about R$413.2 million per R$1, the R$24 revision is estimated to raise mandatory spending by roughly R$9.9 billion.
• Because the minimum wage sets floors for INSS pensions, BPC payments and other benefits and payroll-linked amounts, the final 2027 value will directly affect millions of retirees, low-income beneficiaries and federal payroll costs and should shape budget debates in Brasília through the end of the year.