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Government Challenges 350,000-Family Estimate From Two-Child Cap Repeal as Tory MP Urges Residency Curbs

Ministers present the policy as a way to lift children out of poverty.

Overview

  • Chancellor Rachel Reeves scrapped the two‑child limit in the Budget, restoring around £300 a month for each additional child beyond the second.
  • Centre for Social Justice research using 2021 FOI and census data estimates 341,735 foreign‑born households with three or more children would gain, with the largest groups linked to Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria and Somalia.
  • Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden argued the analysis blurs country of birth with citizenship and employment, and he highlighted tighter rules on migrant access to benefits.
  • Government statements say the reforms will lift hundreds of thousands of children out of poverty, while projections put the welfare cost near £3.5 billion a year by 2029/30, with the true scale uncertain due to dated datasets.
  • Conservative MP Nick Timothy urged tying settlement rights to tax and welfare records and removing residency from net recipients, as Conservatives and Reform UK attack the change and the Tories pledge to reinstate the cap.