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GOP Tax and Spending Package Heads to Trump After Narrow House Approval

James Carville predicts that unified Democratic opposition to the bill’s tax extensions plus Medicaid reductions will cost Republicans more than 40 House seats in 2026

James Carville speaks during the 27th SCAD Savannah Film Festival on October 31, 2024 in Savannah, Georgia.

Overview

  • The House approved President Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” on Thursday by a 218-214 vote with only Reps. Thomas Massie and Brian Fitzpatrick opposing the package.
  • Trump is expected to sign the legislation Friday evening, enshrining extensions of the 2017 tax cuts alongside significant cuts to Medicaid.
  • Several Republican members in both chambers had expressed reservations over the Medicaid reductions included in the package.
  • Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville called the measure a “mass extinction event” on CNN, forecasting the GOP will lose over 40 House seats in the 2026 midterms.
  • Carville highlighted a recent poll showing Democrats leading by 20 points in New Jersey compared with a narrow victory margin in 2021 as evidence of shifting electoral dynamics.