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3h ago

Goolsbee Says Fed Will Use Alternative Data If Shutdown Freezes Official Reports

The self-funded central bank plans to rely on private reports alongside internal gauges if government statistics go dark.

Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee attends the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's 2025 Jackson Hole economic symposium, "Labor Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy" in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 21, 2025. REUTERS/Jim Urquhart
The U.S. Capitol during a cloudy night, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 17, 2025. REUTERS/Daniel Becerril
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Overview

  • The Labor Department said it would halt economic data releases during a shutdown, putting jobless claims, September payrolls and the October 15 consumer price index at risk of delay.
  • Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called BLS data the best available but said policymakers would turn to tools like the Chicago Fed’s labor indicators, including nowcasts of unemployment, hiring and layoffs.
  • UBS maintains its forecast for a 25-basis-point rate cut in October despite potential data gaps, noting the Fed can lean on private-sector surveys and the Beige Book.
  • The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for October 28–29, and Goolsbee also flagged an October 16–17 policy session that may proceed using substitute data if official releases are suspended.
  • Federal operations could shut down at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday without a funding extension, with a House-passed measure stalled in the Senate over a dispute about healthcare subsidies.