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Gold’s Record Run Revives Calls for a Bitcoin Parabolic Move as ETFs Drain Supply

Analysts highlight ETF-driven supply absorption alongside a gold-then-Bitcoin lead-lag pattern.

Overview

  • Gold and silver set fresh records this week, while Bitcoin’s gains trailed the precious-metals surge.
  • Bitwise’s Matt Hougan says U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have bought more than 100% of newly issued BTC since 2024, creating scarcity that could intensify if long-term holder selling fades.
  • Bitwise Europe’s André Dragosch reports gold tends to lead Bitcoin by roughly four to seven months based on causality tests.
  • Deribit data shows traders loading high-strike Bitcoin calls and long-volatility positions into March 2026, signaling bets on sizable upside.
  • Researchers caution Bitcoin’s buyer base is more leveraged and liquidity-sensitive than gold’s, leaving BTC more exposed to volatility and potential shifts in Federal Reserve policy.