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Goldman’s Rob Kaplan Says Fed Was Right to Hold Rates and Urges Caution Before September

He argues incoming data should decide the next step while persistent deficits and large Treasury issuance keep long-term borrowing costs high.

Overview

  • Kaplan publicly backed the Fed’s July 29 decision to keep the federal funds range at 3.50%–3.75% and said officials should stay open‑minded before the September meeting.
  • He pointed to mixed inflation signals as a reason for patience, citing a slowdown in the producer price index and a 0.1% rise in July consumer prices that left annual CPI at 3.4%.
  • Kaplan warned that the bigger risk is higher long-term Treasury yields, saying a structural gap between heavy government borrowing and investor demand is pushing 30‑year yields up.
  • Markets reflected that split view by pricing a stronger chance of no September hike even as the Aug. 13 $25 billion 30‑year auction yielded about 5.22%, the highest for that maturity since 2001.
  • He urged Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to use his Jackson Hole address to explain the July hold so investors understand the reasoning behind a more data‑driven, flexible policy approach.