Overview
- Goldman Sachs based its outlook on a survey of 105 bankers, forecasting a 4% employment decline next year and 11% within three years as AI adoption accelerates.
- Only about one in ten companies has cut staff because of AI so far, and many plan hiring freezes or attrition before layoffs, even as usage expands from 37% of clients today to an expected 74% in three years.
- Survey respondents see the highest risk of reductions in customer service, followed by administration, operations, IT and engineering, with 80% expecting cuts in support roles.
- The warnings arrive as major U.S. employers disclose large 2025 job cuts, including Amazon’s 14,000 reductions and UPS targeting 48,000 overall, with additional layoffs reported at Meta, Paramount and Target.
- Complementary research finds college‑degree roles are over three times as exposed to displacement, current tools reliably automate only about 3% of tasks, and many firms that replaced staff now report regret and have adjusted or rehired.