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Goldman Survey Finds AI Adoption Surging as Job Cuts Loom Over Next Three Years

Most firms are deploying AI to boost productivity rather than to cut costs.

Overview

  • Only 11% of companies are currently attributing layoffs to AI, though about 31% of tech, media and telecom clients show early job pressure, according to Goldman Sachs bankers.
  • Bankers forecast a 4% reduction in head count over the next year and 11% within three years, with financial institutions potentially seeing cuts of up to 14%.
  • About 37% of clients already use AI in regular production, with adoption expected to reach 50% next year and 74% in three years, even as many see the technology as early and cite skills gaps.
  • Customer support faces the highest risk for reductions, followed by administrative support, operations and IT or engineering, with many firms planning hiring freezes or relying on attrition before layoffs.
  • Recent cuts by major employers—including Amazon’s 14,000 corporate roles, UPS’s 48,000, Nestle’s 16,000 and Target’s 1,000—reflect broader restructuring as companies expand AI initiatives, redesign HR workflows and invest in reskilling.