Overview

• Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 surplus forecast to about 1.9 million barrels per day, citing continued OPEC+ supply increases and rising output across the Americas.
• The bank now projects Brent at roughly $53 to $56 per barrel next year, even as inventories have remained tight relative to recent norms.
• OPEC+ signaled it will keep unwinding prior cuts, and Goldman noted the group could pause quota hikes from January 2026 if stocks build as expected.
• S&P Global said Brent could slide to around $55 by year-end under scenarios that include larger surpluses, continued Russian flows, and wider contango.
• Brent traded near $66 as renewed prospects of tougher sanctions on Russia tempered the immediate price impact of OPEC+'s plan to add barrels.