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3h ago

Goldman Sees Modest OPEC+ Hike for November as Secretariat Rebuts Big-Boost Reports

OPEC said reports of a 500,000 bpd November increase were inaccurate, noting ministerial talks have not started.

An aerial view shows a crude oil tanker at an oil terminal off Waidiao island in Zhoushan, Zhejiang province, China January 4, 2023. China Daily via REUTERS
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Overview

  • Goldman Sachs forecasts a 140,000 bpd quota increase for November, while saying a larger move remains plausible based on inventory and demand signals.
  • Reuters has reported that eight OPEC+ members will meet online on October 5, with sources expecting approval of at least a 137,000 bpd rise.
  • The OPEC Secretariat issued a statement from Vienna calling reports of a much larger November boost “wholly inaccurate and misleading” and said ministers have yet to begin discussions.
  • OPEC+ has lifted quotas by more than 2.5 million bpd since April as it continues to unwind cuts first imposed in 2022.
  • Actual supply additions have lagged the announced increases, with about three-quarters delivered due to spare-capacity limits and compensation cuts by some members.