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6h ago

Goldman Sachs: U.S. Shoppers to Bear Most Costs of Trump Tariffs as Inflation Nears 3%

Economists warn the levies are lifting prices toward 3% by December.

A banner showing a picture of President Donald Trump is displayed outside of the U.S. Department of Agriculture building and seen through trees on the National Mall on June 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C.

Overview

  • Goldman Sachs now projects consumers will absorb about 55% of tariff costs by the end of 2025, a softer estimate than its August view of roughly 67%.
  • Analysts say companies are presently carrying a larger share of the burden because price pass-through and supplier renegotiations take time.
  • Goldman estimates the tariff program has already added 0.44 percentage points to core PCE this year and expects headline inflation to reach about 3% by December.
  • Yale Budget Lab finds short-run consumer prices up about 1.7%, implying per-household income losses up to $2,400 this year, with especially steep increases for leather and apparel.
  • The White House highlights onshoring and supply-chain shifts, polling shows 51% disapprove of the president’s economic stewardship, and policy signals remain fluid after a floated 100% China tariff and new measures scheduled for Nov. 1.