Overview
- Goldman projects the MSCI China Index to rise about 20% by end-2026 and the CSI 300 to gain roughly 12% to around 5,200.
- The outlook hinges on corporate profits accelerating to about 14% in 2026–2027 from an estimated 4% in 2025.
- AI deployment, policy support and stronger overseas demand are highlighted as the key drivers of margins and revenue.
- Sector forecasts include roughly 20% profit growth for internet and hardware companies, with carmakers potentially doubling earnings from a low base.
- Risks cited include a weaker domestic demand recovery, renewed property strains and geopolitical or trade shocks, with a firmer yuan seen boosting reported earnings.