Overview
- Goldman’s Peter Oppenheimer says global technology stocks are in their weakest relative stretch in about 50 years yet not in a bubble, citing the lack of a broad IPO wave.
- The bank frames the pullback as a buy case, noting dominant firms trade near 20 times two-year forward earnings versus roughly 52 times at the 2000 peak.
- It flags capital-intensity risk as major cloud providers plan about $635 billion to more than $700 billion for AI data centers and chips, which clouds expected returns.
- Despite the price slump, Goldman cites strong profit forecasts, including about 44% information-technology earnings per share growth in the first quarter of 2026 and AI investment driving roughly 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth this year.
- Investor money has shifted toward capital-heavy “old-economy” groups, with Goldman’s HALO basket up about 11% this year while the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF is down roughly 9% to 11%.