Overview

• Goldman Sachs projects about $300 billion in AI-related spending in 2025 and deems the level sensible given expected long-term returns.
• The bank estimates U.S. AI investment remains under 1% of GDP, below past technology peaks that reached 2% to 5%.
• Its baseline view suggests full AI adoption could lift overall U.S. labor productivity by roughly 15% and add about $20 trillion to the economy over the next decade.
• Analysts flag risks including rapid hardware depreciation, an uncertain market structure, and the possibility that current heavy investors may not capture the largest gains.
• Early adopters are using multiple AI models rather than a single ecosystem, and Morgan Stanley analysts say sector valuations look more reasonable when fundamentals are considered.