Overview
- Goldman Sachs says the U.S. tech sector is not in a bubble, arguing current AI investment levels look sustainable and public valuations remain below dot‑com peaks, though it flags circular deals and a gap with richer private valuations.
- The Bank of England and the IMF warn that equity prices, especially for AI-focused firms, look stretched and that the risk of a sharp market correction has risen, with potential stress for nonbank institutions.
- Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey finds over half of respondents consider AI equities a bubble, as the eight largest U.S. tech companies now account for close to 40% of market value.
- Evidence of payoffs remains uncertain, with reported MIT research finding most firms see no return from generative AI spending and trials showing uneven productivity gains.
- Economists note AI outlays are propping up U.S. growth and corporate capex, yet leverage and vendor financing are building, margin debt has hit a record, and some estimate a 20%–30% selloff could trigger a moderate recession.