Overview
- Mexico’s economy is forecast to expand 1.3% in 2026, an acceleration from an estimated 0.3% in 2025, according to Goldman Sachs.
- Goldman Sachs expects inflation around 4.3% this year and sees the policy rate ending near 6.50% after an initial pause, implying a move toward neutrality.
- The bank flags limited fiscal support, uncertainty over U.S. ties, the T-MEC review and domestic political risk as key drags on investment and spending, with weaker remittances adding pressure.
- Goldman Sachs anticipates the T-MEC will be renewed with stricter rules of origin and says a successful review could allow some reduction of U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports.
- In Sonora, economists and industry groups see 1–2% growth led by automotive manufacturing and mining, while employers warn of higher costs from recent minimum-wage hikes and the 2027 workweek cut even as clearer T-MEC rules offer opportunities.