Goldman Sachs Lowers S&P 500 Forecast as Tariff Concerns Weigh on Market

The bank reduced its year-end target for the index to 6,200, citing economic uncertainty and weaker corporate earnings growth.

Goldman Sachs revised its 2025 S&P 500 year-end target from 6,500 to 6,200 following a nearly 10% market correction in recent weeks.
The adjustment reflects reduced GDP growth projections (1.7% from 2.2%) and lower earnings growth estimates (7% from 9%) due to tariff-related uncertainties and weaker economic activity.
The so-called 'Magnificent 7' stocks, now dubbed the 'Maleficent 7,' have significantly underperformed, collectively dropping about 14% over the last three weeks.
Goldman analysts highlighted that every five percentage point increase in tariffs could reduce S&P 500 earnings by 1%-2%, intensifying concerns over trade policy impacts.
Despite the lowered target, Goldman sees potential recovery triggers, including stronger economic data, changes in tariff policies, or more attractive stock valuations.