Overview

• Goldman projects a surplus averaging 1.8 million barrels per day from Q4 2025 through Q4 2026, implying an almost 800 million‑barrel stock build by end‑2026.
• The bank estimates OECD holdings would make up roughly one‑third of global stocks in 2026, about 270 million barrels, pressuring Brent’s fair value below the current mid‑$70s.
• Goldman expects Brent to track near forward prices through the rest of 2025 before slipping below those contracts in 2026 as inventory builds accelerate.
• Beijing’s buying is a swing factor, with a doubling of China’s stockpiling pace potentially lifting Goldman's 2026 Brent average by about $6 to roughly $62.
• Spot benchmarks were steady to softer, with Brent near $67 and WTI around $63 as traders weighed a U.S. crude draw before Labor Day, new U.S. tariffs on India, Russia‑Ukraine energy strikes, and prospects for Fed rate cuts.