Overview

• Goldman Sachs estimates a 525,000-ton loss of mine supply from the disruption, shifting its 2025 global copper balance from a 105,000-ton surplus to a 55,500-ton deficit and trimming 2026 growth as well.
• Freeport has suspended affected operations and declared force majeure, with unaffected areas targeted to restart by mid–fourth quarter 2025 and most block-cave output not resuming until 2026 before a planned return to pre-incident rates in 2027.
• The Sept. 8 mudrush sent about 800,000 metric tons of wet material through multiple levels at Grasberg, killing two workers and leaving five missing as searches and formal investigations continue.
• Freeport now expects Q3 sales about 4% lower for copper and 6% lower for gold, flags very low output from Grasberg in Q4 2025, and indicates 2026 production could be roughly 35% below prior plans.
• Markets repriced the shock as Freeport shares fell more than 13% on Wednesday and copper futures rose about 3.8% to $4.82 per pound, with Goldman guiding for December 2025 LME prices of $10,200–$10,500 per ton.