Overview
- Monday began largely sunny and dry under a strong Scandinavian high, with cool mornings and local ground‑frost risk reported by the DWD.
- An approaching cold front and a Höhentief, which is an upper‑level low in the atmosphere, are expected to bring increasing cloud, rain and stronger winds from midweek.
- Forecast models disagree on the low’s path and speed, with ICON and GFS usually moving it away faster while ECMWF runs keep it longer over Central Europe, creating real uncertainty in timing and totals.
- The DWD specifically warns of stronger to stormy gusts on Thursday and Friday for the coast and western high terrain and advises residents to expect rain and wind in the second half of the week.
- Model guidance includes wetter scenarios—one ECMWF run shows about 41 liters per square metre for parts of western Germany for the week—but forecasters say outcomes will vary regionally and should be monitored locally.