Overview
- Spot prices briefly slipped below $4,000 on Nov. 3 after Beijing curtailed retailers’ ability to offset VAT on gold bought from Shanghai exchanges, a change set to run through 2027 and seen pressuring jewelry demand.
- The metal is down roughly 9–10% from the Oct. 20 record near $4,381 as risk sentiment improved with signs of US–China trade de‑escalation.
- Despite the pullback, gold remains more than 50% higher year to date, supported by sustained central‑bank buying and heavy ETF inflows, including over 222 tonnes in Q3 per WGC.
- The Federal Reserve’s 25 bps cut on Oct. 29 was followed by hawkish remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, with markets now pricing roughly a 71% chance of a December cut as the stronger dollar caps gains.
- Local markets showed pronounced moves, with India’s MCX December futures trading near Rs 1,21,700 per 10 grams and Pakistan’s per‑tola price rising Rs 1,300 to Rs 423,862 after weekend volatility.