Overview
- Spot and futures prices briefly breached $4,000 on Tuesday, capping a roughly 50% year-to-date rally that marks gold’s strongest calendar-year run since 1979.
- A World Gold Council report showed the largest quarterly inflows on record for gold-backed ETFs in Q3, with about $26 billion added and North American funds leading.
- Rate-cut bets strengthened the move as CME FedWatch shows quarter-point reductions priced for October and December, while a U.S. government shutdown has withheld key data and boosted safe-haven flows.
- Official-sector buying remains robust, with China’s central bank reporting an eleventh straight monthly addition to gold reserves in September.
- Major banks lifted targets—Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 forecast to $4,900—though several strategists cautioned that the rally looks stretched and vulnerable to a pullback.