Overview

• Spot gold traded near $4,035 and U.S. December futures around $4,057 by late morning in London, setting fresh records, according to Reuters and CNA.
• Safe-haven buying intensified as the U.S. government shutdown delayed key data, geopolitical risks persisted in Ukraine and the Middle East, and uncertainty over tariffs and Fed policy lingered.
• Flows into physically backed gold ETFs surged in September, delivering a record $26 billion quarterly intake and lifting assets under management to a high of $472 billion, while central banks continued sizable purchases.
• The metal is up roughly 53% year to date after a 27% gain in 2024, outpacing major equity benchmarks; silver approached $49 and other precious metals advanced, with bitcoin also notching new highs.
• Major houses raised targets—Goldman Sachs to $4,900 by December 2026—yet several analysts flagged overbought conditions and the risk of a near-term pullback if catalysts such as a shutdown resolution or a hawkish Fed emerge.