Overview

• Spot bullion climbed to about $3,636 per ounce with December futures near $3,677, marking a new intraday high.
• Traders assign roughly a 90% probability to a 25 bp Fed cut on September 17 after August payrolls of about 22,000 and 4.3% unemployment.
• U.S. 10-year Treasury yields eased to around 4.05% and the dollar weakened, lowering gold’s opportunity cost and supporting prices.
• Demand signals strengthened as China extended consecutive monthly reserve additions, ETF inflows reached about $6 billion last week after $5.7 billion prior, and CFTC data showed net long positions rising by 20,740 to 168,862 contracts.
• Gold is up roughly 38% year to date, outpacing Bitcoin’s near 18% gain as BTC’s correlation with gold drifts toward zero and U.S. search interest in Bitcoin hits an 11‑month low.