Overview

• Spot prices hit a record near $3,524 and futures briefly climbed to $3,578 on Tuesday, extending this year’s more than 30% rally.
• Traders raised the implied odds of a 25-basis-point cut this month to about 90% after Jerome Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole remarks, with Friday’s jobs report seen as a key swing factor.
• A federal appeals court ruled most of President Trump’s global tariffs illegal, injecting policy uncertainty even as the duties remain in place through Oct. 14 during the administration’s appeal.
• Investor anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s independence intensified after Trump’s criticism of Powell and moves against Governor Lisa Cook, with a legal test of her removal still pending.
• Falling real yields, a softer dollar, and strong institutional demand are reinforcing the rally, with SPDR Gold Trust holdings up 12% this year to 977.68 tons and central banks continuing to add reserves.