Gold Slumps to Mid-$4,300s After Fed Hawk Talk and Rising Yields

Overview

• Gold has fallen into the mid‑$4,300s in early September, roughly 21–22% below its January peak after several days of consecutive declines.
• Markets sharply repriced Fed policy risk after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole comments, with CME FedWatch moving the probability of a September hike into the mid‑60% range.
• Rising U.S. Treasury yields — the 10‑year near about 4.78% — and a firmer dollar have increased the opportunity cost of holding gold and pressured prices.
• Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran have lifted oil and inflation concerns, which can both boost safe‑haven demand for gold and strengthen the case for higher rates, creating offsetting forces.
• Structural factors provide counterweight to the pullback: global gold ETFs have seen about $18.9 billion of inflows over 12 months and liquidity/M2 valuation models, such as a Fidelity framework, point to a higher structural fair value around $5,025 per ounce.