Overview

• Investors still assign high odds to two additional 25 bp reductions in 2025—about 89.8% for October and 73.4% for December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
• Jerome Powell reiterated a data-dependent approach in Rhode Island and declined to map a rate path, which frustrated expectations for explicit guidance and weighed on U.S. equities.
• Treasury yields and the dollar edged higher in early trade as positioning reset following mixed messages from Fed officials.
• Gold futures climbed to fresh record highs on Comex, supported by anticipated lower real rates, central-bank buying and heightened geopolitical risk.
• Bitcoin and major tokens extended declines, with roughly $363 million in net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs alongside ongoing derivative deleveraging.