Overview

• Spot bullion climbed to new highs near $3,620 an ounce after Comex futures set a record around $3,655, while India’s benchmark retail rate topped roughly Rs 1,08,000 per 10 grams and MCX contracts notched fresh peaks.
• Markets priced almost three US rate cuts this year following August payrolls of about 22,000 and a rise in unemployment to 4.3%, with a softer dollar and strong ETF inflows reinforcing demand for non-yielding gold.
• Official-sector support remains a structural pillar as the People’s Bank of China extended its buying to a tenth straight month and WGC data show multi-year purchases above 1,000 tonnes annually, though July net buying slowed and the RBI paused additions.
• Policy and political currents added fuel as the US formally exempted gold bars from recent tariffs and worries about Fed independence persisted; Goldman Sachs flagged a tail-risk path toward roughly $5,000 if Treasuries were partly reallocated into bullion.
• Analysts cautioned that overbought conditions could spur short-term profit-taking and volatility, with focus on US CPI and PPI, ECB signals, and Treasury auctions to determine whether the rally extends or consolidates.