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1h ago

Gold Sets Fresh Record Above $3,730 as Fed Cut Bets Intensify

Rate‑cut expectations are pulling more investors into bullion as the dollar weakens.

Oro alcanza máximos históricos mientras el dólar se debilita
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Overview

  • Spot prices climbed to roughly $3,728–$3,733 per ounce on Monday with futures near $3,766, extending this month’s surge to fresh highs.
  • Traders are pricing in two additional 25 bp reductions this year, with CME FedWatch showing about 93% odds for October and 81% for December.
  • The FOMC last week lowered its target range to 4.00%–4.25%, the first cut since December, reinforcing the appeal of non‑yielding gold.
  • Sustained demand from institutions is bolstering the rally, with Q2 central‑bank additions led by Poland (+18.6t), Kazakhstan (+15.6t) and Turkey (+10.8t), alongside reported ETF inflows and safe‑haven interest tied to geopolitical strains.
  • Gold is up roughly 40%–42% year to date and about 8% in September; forecasts range from around $3,800 over 12 months (Deutsche Bank) to $4,000 in 2025–2026 (Bank of America, Vontobel, IG), after a brief post‑Fed dip to near $3,650 on Powell’s cautious tone.