Overview
- Spot gold climbed about 2% to roughly $4,304 an ounce and US August futures rose to about $4,325 after reports that US and Iranian officials agreed a preliminary framework to end their conflict.
- The reported framework reduced fears of further Strait of Hormuz disruptions, sending oil prices lower and weakening the US dollar, which made dollar‑priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers.
- Market pricing of Fed policy shifted quickly, with the CME FedWatch Tool moving the probability of a December rate hike down to about 47% from roughly 69% a week earlier.
- Analysts caution the rally will only last if the framework proves durable, while longer‑term demand from central banks and ETFs continues to provide structural support for prices.
- Investors should watch confirmation of the deal, formal signing plans in Switzerland reported by officials, and US real yields because those factors will determine whether gold resumes a sustained uptrend or returns to recent mid‑June levels near $4,200.