Overview
- Traders now assign roughly 72%–81% odds of a 25 bp Federal Reserve cut in December after comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams signaled room for near‑term easing.
- Global bullion hovered around $4,100–$4,175 an ounce on Tuesday, with gains tempered by a firm U.S. dollar near six‑month highs that raises the cost for non‑dollar buyers.
- In India, MCX December gold futures rose about 1.2% to roughly Rs 1,25,312 per 10 grams, while Delhi retail rates climbed as high as Rs 1,28,900 per 10 grams on strong wedding‑season demand, according to the All India Sarafa Association.
- Markets are awaiting a backlog of U.S. reports delayed by the government shutdown, including PPI, retail sales and jobless claims, which could recalibrate rate expectations and gold’s near‑term range.
- Gold remains on track for its strongest annual gain since 1979 on central‑bank buying and ETF inflows, though forecasts diverge, with Bank of America seeing potential further upside into 2026 and Macquarie warning of a post‑peak correction.