Overview
- Spot gold was trading around $4,060 per ounce on Monday, August 3, 2026, roughly 20–26% below its January record high.
- UBS projects a medium‑term rise to $5,200 by June 2027 but warns prices could first dip toward $3,850 if investors keep pricing further US rate increases.
- Deutsche Bank maintains a bullish year‑end view near $4,600 and places a practical downside floor around $3,800–$3,900 under a scenario of multiple Fed hikes.
- Central banks provided the largest support, buying about 289 tonnes in Q2 and sustaining a first‑half annualised pace near 700 tonnes that is less price‑sensitive than retail flows.
- Weakening investment demand, shown by lower bar‑and‑coin sales and ETF outflows plus regional retail falls such as Dubai’s 24K trading below Dh500 per gram, leaves gold vulnerable to higher real Treasury yields driven by US rate expectations.