Overview
- Spot gold has retreated to the low-$4,100s, trading around $4,123 per ounce, after peaking near $5,595 in January and falling roughly 7% year to date.
- The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50–3.75% in the June 16–17 meeting, but the dot plot showed a 9‑9 split and Chair Kevin Warsh declined to give a personal projection, creating fresh uncertainty about the policy path.
- A firmer U.S. dollar and higher real yields are the main near-term forces pushing gold lower because they raise the return on interest-bearing assets compared with non-yielding bullion.
- Markets are focused on the June FOMC minutes scheduled for release July 8 for which traders expect clues about which side of the 9‑9 split gained traction and whether that will tighten or ease pressure on gold.
- Structural supports such as central-bank purchases, swings in ETF holdings, and episodic geopolitical risk remain potential stabilizers and could trigger renewed buying if the Fed signals less chance of further rate hikes.