Overview

• Spot prices set a record near $3,896.85 last week and futures trade close to $3,900 as the market tests the $4,000 threshold.
• Official-sector buying has topped 1,000 tonnes this year as central banks diversify reserves and hedge dollar volatility.
• A softer U.S. dollar, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and recent U.S. political turmoil, including a government shutdown, are reinforcing flight-to-safety bids.
• Major houses have lifted targets, with Bank of America pointing to $4,000, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs projecting $4,000 in 2026, and Goldman outlining a scenario where $5,000 is possible if Federal Reserve credibility is undermined.
• Investor demand has accelerated, with gold-backed ETFs taking in about $13.6 billion over the past four weeks and more than $60 billion year to date, lifting holdings to roughly 3,800 tonnes as September delivered nearly a 12% monthly gain.