Overview

• Spot gold is trading near $3,650 an ounce after setting a record $3,673.95 this week, leaving prices up roughly 38–40% in 2025.
• CME FedWatch shows markets heavily favor a September rate cut, with strong odds on a 25-basis-point move and a smaller chance of 50 bps, while the dollar index has fallen about 9–11% this year.
• Central banks continue to accumulate reserves and physically backed ETFs are drawing inflows, with SPDR Gold Trust holdings rising above 990 tons for a double‑digit gain year to date.
• Indian prices hit successive peaks around Rs 1.12–1.13 lakh per 10 grams in Delhi, though MCX futures briefly slipped below Rs 1.09 lakh on profit-taking.
• Analysts cite geopolitical and trade risks and concerns over Federal Reserve independence, and traders are focused on US PPI and CPI prints ahead of next week’s policy decision.