Overview

• By Friday, spot gold hovered just below $4,000 and was on track for an eighth straight weekly gain after hitting a record $4,059.05 midweek.
• Fed minutes reinforced expectations for more easing, with CME FedWatch showing roughly 95% odds of a 25 bp cut in October and around 80% for December.
• Silver touched about $51.2 per ounce for the first time in decades before easing to around $49–$50, lifting 2025 gains to roughly 70%.
• Persistent demand from central banks and record inflows to gold-backed ETFs—$64 billion globally this year and $35 billion into GLD—are reinforcing support.
• Safe-haven buying tied to the U.S. government shutdown and political strains in Japan and France has intensified flows, even as profit-taking and higher volatility emerge.