Overview
- Traders price an 86–90% chance of a 25 bps Fed cut this week, with spot gold holding around $4,195–$4,223 and futures near $4,240.
- Silver trades near $58 after notching a record around $59.3–$59.9 last week, supported by tight inventories and strong industrial demand.
- India’s rates remain high with 24k prices near Rs 1,30,000 per 10g across major cities, while Pakistan’s per tola rose Rs 1,600 to Rs 443,762 in step with global gains.
- Supportive flows persist as the People’s Bank of China extended its gold purchases to a 13th month and ETFs logged fresh inflows in both gold and silver.
- Positioning stays cautious before the FOMC decision and Powell’s remarks, with profit‑taking on MCX and BIS warnings highlighting the risk of sharp reversals.