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Gold Holds Near $4,000 as Rate‑Cut Bets Swing on Private U.S. Data

Private U.S. readings during the shutdown have boosted near‑term easing expectations, supporting haven demand despite firmer Fed rhetoric.

Overview

  • Bullion traded around $4,000 an ounce and remains on pace for its best year since 1979, though prices sit about 9% below last month’s record high.
  • Weak private labor indicators, including the largest October U.S. job‑cut tally in over two decades and souring consumer sentiment, increased expectations of Federal Reserve easing while official data stayed delayed.
  • Fed commentary cooled some optimism for additional cuts, with Powell’s hawkish tone and remarks from Austan Goolsbee contributing to a choppy week that some gauges marked as gold’s third weekly decline.
  • Analyst views diverged, with Macquarie suggesting the near‑term peak may be in as growth stabilizes, while UBS and Goldman Sachs maintained higher price targets from current levels.
  • Local markets showed mixed moves, with Indian spot prices edging lower even as MCX December futures rose by Rs 520, Pakistan’s rates holding steady, and silver strengthening after its addition to the U.S. critical‑minerals list.