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Gold Holds Near $4,000 as Dollar Strengthens and USChina Thaw Eases Haven Demand

Traders have trimmed expectations for a December Fed cut, leaving near-term direction uncertain despite record third-quarter demand.

Overview

  • Spot prices hovered around $4,000 per ounce and logged a second weekly decline as the dollar stayed near a three‑month high following Jerome Powell’s cautious guidance.
  • Markets now price a roughly 75% chance of a December rate cut versus about 91% a week earlier, according to CME FedWatch data cited in multiple reports.
  • World Gold Council data show total demand hit a quarterly record of 1,313 tonnes in Q3 2025, led by heavy central bank buying and record inflows into gold‑backed ETFs.
  • The metal touched an intramonth peak near $4,381 in October before a sharp pullback, including a 5.7% single‑day drop in COMEX futures, the biggest in 12 years.
  • Local markets diverged, with Indian dealers shifting to discounts of up to $12 per ounce after festivals, while Pakistan’s benchmark tola price jumped by Rs5,300 alongside a global uptick.