Overview

• Spot prices have consolidated for months in a roughly $3,300 to $3,400 per ounce range after setting records earlier this year.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks and CME FedWatch pricing point to a likely rate cut next month, a setup that typically supports gold by lowering real yields and the dollar.
• Rosenberg Research highlights sustained central-bank demand—more than 3,600 tonnes purchased from Q1 2022 to Q2 2025—as a structural pillar for prices.
• Forecasts frame the upside with J.P. Morgan at $3,675 by year-end and $4,000 by Q2 2026, while one bull-case view sees about $4,000 by year-end if real rates fall and risk aversion persists.
• Downside scenarios center on firmer growth, a stronger dollar, sticky inflation or no Fed easing, with some estimates pointing toward roughly $3,200 by year-end.